Cutting Through the Summer Noise
Did sales really surge in July ?
Market Activity: What the Numbers Actually Say
By now you've probably heard the hype about the TRREB's July 2025 Market Watch, which reported 6,100 residential transactions across the GTA last month. That’s up meaningfully from July of last year by 10.9%. At the same time, the average sale price in July 2025 was $1,051,719, a 5.5 percent decline compared to July of last year. The data covers the entire TRREB region, including Toronto, Durham, Peel, York, and Halton.
The press release goes on to claim the July sales volume is month on month improvement over June, but this is only an optical illusion created by a seasonal adjustment. The raw numbers actually show June with 6,243 transactions, more than July.
Context matters. Seasonal adjustments are a statistical tool used by economists, central banks, and policy analysts, people analyzing economic patterns from a 30,000-foot view. The goal is to smooth out normal fluctuations like summer slowdowns or spring bursts in order to see broader trends. While that perspective is useful for people in these professions, agents need to focus on the raw data and month-to-month cycles their clients are experiencing. Understanding when activity naturally rises or slows is not theoretical when you are examining and trying to understand the market in real time.
Unfortunately, many in the real estate industry and media have taken the adjusted July number and turned it into attention-grabbing headlines that imply a surge in momentum. This twists what is essentially a statistical smoothing tool into a sales narrative, and it intentionally seeks to create emotional reactions at the expense of informed decisions. Misrepresenting statistics to generate attention, even unintentionally, erodes trust and makes it harder for people to see the market as it truly is. Clear and accurate information gives people the confidence to make good decisions.
Why Is Volume Up While Prices Are Down?
From an economic perspective, there are several layers. In its July 30 interest rate decision, the Bank of Canada noted that the Canadian economy has been more resilient than feared in the face of tariff uncertainty. Inflation has run slightly hotter than expected, and the unemployment rate has edged lower. Because the backdrop has proven steadier, the Bank held the policy rate unchanged in July rather than cutting. Mortgage rates, meanwhile, have not eased; in fact, many fixed terms are modestly higher than in the spring by roughly 20 to 30 basis points. The recent uptick in sales is therefore not being driven by cheaper borrowing.
Demand Meets Price
Instead, the more likely explanation is that prices have adjusted to a point where buyers are willing to engage. Affordability can improve through either lower prices or lower borrowing costs; in this case, it is coming only from the first. This is where demand meets supply, the point at which enough buyers are prepared to act at current prices, even in a higher-rate environment. Sellers who price in line with market reality are finding buyers, while those anchored to past valuations are often left waiting.
Life Plans Resuming
This willingness to engage is not only about numbers and budgets, but about people deciding the time is right to move forward after taking a big step back earlier in the year. The economic shock of the spring, which was triggered by rising trade tensions and economic uncertainty made buyers take pause. This kind of break is a familiar pattern in housing markets (and in most financial markets) in the face of fear and volatility. When there is a major policy shift or economic jolt, activity often slows for 3 to 6 months as buyers reassess. We saw this in 2018 after the foreign buyer tax, in March of 2020 with the onset of the pandemic, and again in 2022 when interest rates climbed sharply.
Now, that pause appears to be ending. For some buyers, the uncertainty no longer feels as disruptive, and long-term housing plans are moving ahead. Buyers are proceeding when the right property aligns with their needs and goals, and sellers are achieving results when pricing and presentation match the moment. The market remains navigable for those who approach it with clear information and realistic expectations.
The Path Forward
Looking ahead, the patterns driving the market are unlikely to change in the near term. Well-renovated homes continue to outperform those in need of significant work, and properties in good repair consistently attract stronger attention than those requiring major updates. Location remains a key driver of value, with demand concentrating in established neighbourhoods that offer convenience, amenities, and lifestyle appeal. Freehold houses are also holding a stronger position than condos, as buyers prioritize scarcity space, and long-term usability.
Conclusion
Summer is always a low-signal period in real estate because engagement is lower and many people have other priorities. The market is still functioning, but this summer’s buyers are engaged at a higher level than was expected. That being said it’s likely not a major shift in the direction of the total market, but a re-engagement on somewhat improved affordability and a more subtle relaxation coming off a major fear based pull back earlier in the year.
It’s my mission to push back against the misinformation often spread by the real estate industry and media, which can overemphasize certain points to provoke emotional reactions. My goal is to provide honest analysis, challenge misleading interpretations, and give you a clear view of the market.
Written by Cameron Levitt, Toronto real estate agent known for clear, data-driven, and honest market analysis. Despite headlines, raw data shows July 2025 sales did not rise from June. Year-over-year transactions are up 10.9% while prices fell 5.5%. This report cuts through seasonal-adjustment hype, explains why demand is returning, and highlights how location, renovation quality, and realistic pricing are driving today’s market
